The Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, and risk assets briefly rallied on the widely-expected move — before Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish press conference and an updated dot plot erased the gains.
Crypto stabilized overnight after Tuesday's CLARITY Act-driven selloff, and Wall Street heads into Wednesday's FOMC decision — the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — with a 25-basis-point hike already priced in at roughly 91% odds.
A failed Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act erased Monday's regulatory-optimism rally, with XRP the hardest hit. Stocks, oil and gold all moved on the same oil-and-yields backdrop ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision.
Bitcoin fell back below $78,000 overnight as oil topped $108 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke 5% for the first time since 2023, unwinding much of Monday's crypto rally ahead of a pivotal day for both Washington and the Fed.
XRP led a broad crypto rally on Senate CLARITY Act optimism, decoupling from a mixed Wall Street session weighed down by AI-slowdown jitters ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's call to slow frontier AI development, echoed by Sam Altman and Elon Musk, knocked futures and AI-linked Asian stocks on Monday, with Wall Street heading into a genuine coin-flip FOMC decision on Wednesday.
August's core CPI came in hotter than forecast, sending Fed rate-hike odds for next week's meeting to about 90%. Wall Street rallied anyway, snapping a four-day losing streak, while bitcoin spiked more than 4% on the release before fading back to a modest daily gain.
Wall Street closed out a fourth consecutive losing session Thursday, and futures were only modestly firmer Friday morning as markets awaited the August CPI report — the last inflation print before the Fed's September 16 decision.
August PPI came in hotter than expected, pushing CME-tracked odds of a Fed hike next week to 70%. Stocks, European indices and crypto all fell in response, with bitcoin's sharpest drop landing in the hour the data hit.
Gold broke above $4,400 an ounce as the dollar softened, even as US equities notched a third consecutive losing session and Brent crude held near $101 on the ongoing Iran conflict.
Brent crude broke back above $100 a barrel after US forces sank four Iranian tankers in the Gulf of Oman, dragging Wall Street and European equities lower into Wednesday's close.
Crypto majors drifted modestly higher overnight, a mild decoupling from equities after Tuesday's 627-point Dow slide on the Saudi oil-facility attacks. The week's real test — Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI — sets the tone into next week's coin-flip FOMC.
A wave of Houthi drone and missile strikes on Saudi Arabia's southern oil region wounded 73 people and knocked out energy facilities, sending Brent toward $100 a barrel and pulling equities lower into Tuesday's close.
US markets reopened from the Labor Day break under fresh trade and geopolitical pressure: Canada's $20bn counter-tariffs on US goods took effect, oil stayed elevated after last week's Iran-US tanker strikes, and crypto traded a tight range ahead of Friday's CPI.
A much-stronger-than-expected August jobs report knocked stocks and crypto lower Friday, as traders raised the odds of a September Fed rate hike to roughly 60%.
Wall Street snapped a three-day losing streak as Fed Governor Waller struck a dovish note, easing Treasury yields even as Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole tone keeps September rate-hike odds near 60%. Bitcoin and ether both rallied more than 4% on the day.
Iran's overnight missile and drone strikes on US allies pushed oil to a 20-month high and Treasury yields to their highest since January 2025 — yet Wall Street closed higher, led by a blowout Snowflake quarter.
A reignited Israel-Iran conflict and a hawkish repricing of the Fed's next move — traders now put ~66% odds on a hike, not a cut — sent Treasury yields to a 2.5-year high and pulled bitcoin and ether lower even as Wall Street closed higher.
Fresh US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation against Gulf neighbors and US bases pushed oil and bond yields to multi-year highs, even as US equities closed higher and crypto sold off.
Overnight strikes between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz sent US and European equities lower, while a hawkish Fed pivot pushed September rate-hike odds to about 60%.
Stocks, gold and crypto all fell as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude toward $94 and hardened bets on a Fed rate hike this month.
Oil jumped and equities slipped as the US and Iran traded strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech has markets pricing better-than-even odds of a September rate hike.