The Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, and risk assets briefly rallied on the widely-expected move — before Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish press conference and an updated dot plot erased the gains.
Crypto stabilized overnight after Tuesday's CLARITY Act-driven selloff, and Wall Street heads into Wednesday's FOMC decision — the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — with a 25-basis-point hike already priced in at roughly 91% odds.
A failed Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act erased Monday's regulatory-optimism rally, with XRP the hardest hit. Stocks, oil and gold all moved on the same oil-and-yields backdrop ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision.
Bitcoin fell back below $78,000 overnight as oil topped $108 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke 5% for the first time since 2023, unwinding much of Monday's crypto rally ahead of a pivotal day for both Washington and the Fed.
XRP led a broad crypto rally on Senate CLARITY Act optimism, decoupling from a mixed Wall Street session weighed down by AI-slowdown jitters ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's call to slow frontier AI development, echoed by Sam Altman and Elon Musk, knocked futures and AI-linked Asian stocks on Monday, with Wall Street heading into a genuine coin-flip FOMC decision on Wednesday.
August's core CPI came in hotter than forecast, sending Fed rate-hike odds for next week's meeting to about 90%. Wall Street rallied anyway, snapping a four-day losing streak, while bitcoin spiked more than 4% on the release before fading back to a modest daily gain.
Wall Street closed out a fourth consecutive losing session Thursday, and futures were only modestly firmer Friday morning as markets awaited the August CPI report — the last inflation print before the Fed's September 16 decision.
August PPI came in hotter than expected, pushing CME-tracked odds of a Fed hike next week to 70%. Stocks, European indices and crypto all fell in response, with bitcoin's sharpest drop landing in the hour the data hit.
Gold broke above $4,400 an ounce as the dollar softened, even as US equities notched a third consecutive losing session and Brent crude held near $101 on the ongoing Iran conflict.