Bombatag - News

Fed hikes for first time since 2023; Warsh's tone erases the pop

maksim07 — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 20:00:01 +0100

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday, its first hike since July 2023. Risk assets popped on the move — which markets had priced at roughly 92-94% odds beforehand — only to give the gains back once new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first press conference since succeeding Jerome Powell, struck a hawkish tone: "this summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." An updated dot plot flagged another hike as likely before year-end.

Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.3% at 51,591.19; the S&P 500 added 0.2%; the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% to close at 25,973.67, with megacap tech outperforming. The S&P had been running a larger gain earlier in the session before paring it back once Warsh began speaking.

European indices, which close before the 2pm ET Fed statement, finished lower: the FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% to 10,833, the DAX fell 0.2% to 26,331, the CAC 40 dropped 0.5% to 8,675, and the Stoxx 600 eased 0.2% to 659.48.

Commodities

Brent crude fell about 3% to $105.48 a barrel after the US Energy Secretary said Saudi Arabia's damaged East-West pipeline — whose outage had pushed Brent above $108 earlier in the week — should resume operations within days, easing the acute supply scare. Gold rose about 0.7% to roughly $4,324 an ounce, helped by the softer oil price and a weaker dollar, even as the largely-priced-in rate hike limited the metal's reaction.

Crypto

Bitcoin opened the UTC day at $75,644 and spiked more than 1% to an intraday high of $76,561 within about eight minutes of the 18:00 UTC (2pm ET) Fed statement. It then reversed sharply as Warsh's hawkish remarks landed, falling to a session low of $75,065 by roughly 18:36 UTC before settling back near $75,530 as of 18:56 UTC — a net move of about -0.15% on the day despite an intraday round trip of more than $1,400. Ether followed a shallower version of the same pattern, easing about 0.2% to $2,393 from a $2,398 open. XRP slipped about 0.5% and dogecoin fell about 0.7%, while solana bucked the trend, up roughly 0.9%, and BNB added about 0.4%.

What it means for crypto trading

The rate hike itself was fully priced in and, on net, a non-event for bitcoin — it round-tripped back to roughly flat. The actual driver was forward guidance: Warsh's insistence that underlying inflation "has not meaningfully improved," paired with a dot plot pointing to another hike this year, is what erased the initial pop across both stocks and crypto. The catalyst that would move crypto from here is whether upcoming inflation and labor data validate or undercut that hawkish path — confirmation would likely pressure risk assets further, while a cooler print could let Wednesday's brief post-decision rally reassert itself.

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Crypto steadies near $76k as Warsh's first Fed decision looms

maksim07 — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

Crypto found its footing overnight after Tuesday's selloff, with bitcoin trading at $75,892 as of 05:56 UTC, up 0.3% from the 00:00 UTC open of $75,644 and holding just above Tuesday's low near $75,458. The stabilization comes ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, the first to be delivered under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh since he succeeded Jerome Powell in May.

What to watch

The Fed announces its rate decision at 2pm ET (18:00 UTC) Wednesday alongside the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. CME-implied odds put a 25-basis-point hike at roughly 91%, meaning the outcome itself is largely priced in — the market's real focus is Warsh's post-decision press conference at 2:30pm ET and the 2027 rate path the dot plot implies.

Markets

Wall Street fell Tuesday as Treasury yields surged and traders digested an AI-safety essay from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.63% to close at 52,093.11, the S&P 500 fell 0.45% to 7,585.73, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.78% to 25,981.57.

European markets extended their own losses. The FTSE 100 fell 0.4% to 10,654, weighed by rising oil prices and weak UK employment data. The Stoxx 600 declined 0.6% to a three-month low and the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.8%, as climbing oil prices and multi-year-high bond yields pressured valuations across the continent.

Commodities

Oil pulled back from Tuesday's spike: WTI crude fell 1.1% to $104.68 a barrel, while Brent eased to a $106–108 range after topping $109 on Tuesday amid the continued outage of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Gold traded at $4,289 an ounce, near five-week lows, as firming Fed hike odds weighed on the metal.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded at $75,892 as of 05:56 UTC, up 0.3% from the prior UTC-day open of $75,644. Ether traded at $2,404, also up 0.3% from its $2,398 open. XRP was the standout mover, up 0.7% to $1.2925, clawing back a sliver of Tuesday's CLARITY Act-driven plunge after the Senate's cloture vote on the crypto market-structure bill fell short of 60 votes.

What it means for crypto trading

With a rate hike already priced in near 91%, the decision itself is unlikely to move markets much. The real catalyst is qualitative: the dot plot's implied 2027 path and the tone Warsh strikes in his first press conference as Chair. A hawkish surprise on either front — or a hint that further hikes are coming — is the scenario most likely to pressure crypto and risk assets broadly through the rest of the week.

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CLARITY Act fails in Senate; crypto reverses Monday's rally

maksim07 — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 20:00:01 +0100

The Senate's cloture vote on the CLARITY Act failed on Tuesday afternoon, falling short of the 60 votes needed to advance the crypto market-structure bill and effectively killing it for the 2026 session. The result reversed Monday's regulatory-optimism rally and sent crypto broadly lower through the New York afternoon, while stocks, oil and gold traded on the same oil-and-yields backdrop that has dominated the week ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.

Markets

US stocks slipped: the S&P 500 fell 0.58% to 7,576, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.80% (421.43 points) to 51,999.77, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.75% (196.16 points) to 25,990.25. Beyond the Fed setup, stocks were still digesting the fallout from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's AI-safety essay, which has weighed on sentiment since the weekend.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 closed down 0.41% (44 points) at 10,654, hurt by rising oil prices and weak UK employment data. The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell roughly 0.2–0.4% to near 633.3, with banks the biggest sectoral drag (-1.3%); most sectors were lower, barring healthcare and travel/leisure. The DAX and CAC 40 also closed lower on the session, tracking the same oil-and-yields pressure as London.

Commodities

Brent crude rose about 1.2% to $107 a barrel and WTI gained roughly 1.5% to $103, extending September's rally to about 18% as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline remained offline following last week's attacks — Saudi Aramco has given no restart timeline, and Riyadh is routing more crude through the Strait of Hormuz to compensate.

Gold opened at $4,340.30 an ounce and slid to roughly $4,263–4,315 over the session, down 0.3–0.8% and its lowest level in about two weeks, as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5.01% — its highest since 2007 — competing with gold for haven flows.

Crypto

As of 18:56–18:58 UTC Tuesday, bitcoin traded at $76,096.51, down 2.68% from the 00:00 UTC open of $78,189.21, with an intraday low of $74,967.97 struck in the 18:00 UTC hour — the session's worst hour, down 1.12% — coinciding with the vote result (the cloture vote was held at 2:15pm ET / 18:15 UTC). Ether fell 4.51% to $2,402.35 from $2,515.76.

XRP was the standout loser, down 6.53% to $1.3302 from $1.4231, erasing most of Monday's 10.1% CLARITY-anticipation rally. Solana fell 4.43% to $97.99 and Dogecoin fell 3.46% to $0.08077; BNB was comparatively resilient, down just 0.40% to $717.63.

The cloture vote needed 60 votes; Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, so at least seven Democrats were required and didn't materialize. Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis said afterward, "I think we're done. It's over," pointing to more than a year of work and over 120 concessions offered to opponents. Cardano Foundation CEO Federico Gregaard said builders "can't afford to wait around for the U.S. to get its act together," calling the EU "the clearest jurisdiction to do so."

What it means for crypto trading

With the CLARITY Act's failure removing the near-term regulatory catalyst that drove Monday's rally, the dominant near-term driver for crypto shifts squarely to Wednesday's FOMC decision — CME FedWatch-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike, which would be the first since 2023, stood around 92%. The 10-year yield's approach to 5% is the other lever: a confirmed hike with hawkish guidance would likely extend today's risk-off pressure, while a milder tone could give crypto room to stabilize after a broad-based decline.

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Bitcoin erases Monday's rally as oil tops $108 and yields near 5%

maksim07 — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

A surge in oil prices and a brief break above 5% on the 10-year Treasury yield knocked risk appetite on Monday, and bitcoin gave back its regulatory-rally gains overnight. As of 05:57 UTC on Tuesday, bitcoin traded at $77,597.33, down 0.8% from the prior UTC-day close of $78,189.21 and well off Monday's intraday high near $79,600, reached around 20:00 UTC. The reversal tracked a broader risk-off shift: the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.01% Monday — its first trip above that level since 2023 — before easing back to roughly 4.94%, as Brent crude spiked on the continued shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and CME FedWatch-implied odds of a Fed rate hike this week rose to around 90%.

What to watch

Two catalysts dominate the day. The Senate's CLARITY Act cloture vote is scheduled for 2:15pm ET (18:15 UTC), needing 60 votes to advance the crypto market-structure bill; the White House agreed to new ethics language over the weekend to try to win over holdout Democrats, but the outcome is far from assured — odds on 2026 passage had collapsed from 82% in February to around 16% by late August. Separately, the Fed's two-day FOMC meeting begins today, with Wednesday's decision accompanied by a fresh Summary of Economic Projections; CME FedWatch odds sit near 90% for a 25-basis-point hike.

Markets

The S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.8% on Monday, with the Dow down about 152 points, as chipmakers extended a selloff tied to the weekend's AI-slowdown warnings from Anthropic's Dario Amodei, echoed by OpenAI's Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk — a semiconductor gauge fell 5.9% — compounded by the oil spike and surging bond yields.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 closed up 0.4% at 10,697.57, outperforming on its heavy oil-and-mining weighting amid the crude rally, while Germany's DAX fell about 0.3% and France's CAC 40 slid about 0.4%, both weighed down by tech and industrial exposure to the AI-linked selloff. The Stoxx 600 was little changed to slightly lower.

Commodities

Brent crude jumped to $108-109 a barrel, a roughly four-month high and up 3.3% on the day, after Saudi Arabia's East-West Crude Oil Pipeline — its main export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz — stayed shut following drone strikes launched from Iraqi territory on September 10-11 amid the wider Iran war. Saudi crude supply fell to its lowest level in more than three decades in August. Gold held near $4,300 an ounce, on track for a third straight weekly decline, pressured by rate-hike bets and a firmer dollar.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded at $77,597.33 (-0.8% from the 00:00 UTC open) and ether at $2,496.52 (-0.8%). XRP was the standout loser, at $1.4086 (-1.0%), giving back a meaningful chunk of Monday's regulatory-optimism rally — which had taken it as high as $1.4771, up 10.1% on the day — as today's CLARITY Act vote looms. Solana fell 1.2% to $101.35, dogecoin eased 0.5% to $0.08325, and BNB was roughly flat, up 0.2% at $722.02. The CLARITY Act cloture vote later today is the live, unresolved regulatory catalyst for the sector.

What it means for crypto trading

Today's two real catalysts are the CLARITY Act cloture vote and Wednesday's FOMC decision. A failed cloture vote or a hawkish Fed surprise — a hike paired with a hawkish dot plot — would likely extend the overnight pullback across majors, while a successful 60-vote outcome or a dovish Fed tone could reignite Monday's rally, with XRP the most levered to the regulatory outcome specifically.

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XRP jumps 10% as crypto decouples from a choppy Wall Street

maksim07 — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 20:00:01 +0100

Crypto decoupled from a mixed Wall Street session on Monday, with XRP leading a broad rally on optimism that the Senate's revised, White House-backed CLARITY Act will clear a cloture vote on Tuesday. As of 18:58 UTC, XRP traded at $1.4771, up 10.1% from the day's 00:00 UTC open of $1.3412 — easily the session's standout mover. Bitcoin added 3.1% to $79,222 (from $76,842) and ether rose 2.5% to $2,540, outperforming a stock market still weighed down by the weekend's AI-slowdown warnings from Anthropic and OpenAI leadership.

Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% to close at 52,573.29, helped by rotation into value and industrial names. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.35% to 26,242.04 and the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% to roughly 7,633, dragged by chipmakers — Nvidia, AMD, Micron and Marvell all fell between 2.5% and 8% — as the AI-slowdown essay from Anthropic's Dario Amodei, echoed over the weekend by OpenAI's Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk, continued to weigh on the AI trade into a second session.

European indices were little changed. The FTSE 100 was the session's early bright spot, the only major index in the green at the open, before finishing down 0.1% at 10,833. The DAX fell 0.2% to 26,331, the CAC 40 fell 0.5% to 8,675, and the Stoxx 600 fell 0.2% to about 659.

Commodities

Oil pulled back sharply from last week's Hormuz-driven spike: Brent crude fell 2.8% to settle at $104.61/bbl, and WTI fell 2.4% to $100.05/bbl. Gold eased to about $4,280/oz, down roughly 1.2% on the day and off last week's highs above $4,400, as some of the safe-haven bid unwound.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded at $79,222 as of 18:58 UTC, up 3.1% from the day's 00:00 UTC open of $76,842. Ether rose 2.5% to $2,540. SOL added 4.4% and DOGE added 3.2%, but XRP was the standout, up 10.1% to $1.4771.

On the regulatory side, the Senate's CLARITY Act — a revised market-structure bill with White House-backed concessions — faces a cloture vote on Tuesday, September 15. Passage would codify into statute the classification bridge currently governing how crypto assets are treated, a particularly significant development for XRP given Ripple's long-running history with the SEC; anticipation of a favorable outcome appears to have driven much of Monday's altcoin bid. Separately, Fed-funds futures price an 87–100% probability of a 25bp hike at Wednesday's FOMC decision, which would take the target range to 3.75–4.00% — the first hike since 2023 — following August's hotter-than-expected core CPI.

What it means for crypto trading

Monday's session showed crypto trading on its own catalyst — regulatory optimism around the CLARITY Act — rather than following equities or rate expectations. That decoupling is the thing to watch: a cloture-vote setback Tuesday or a hawkish surprise at Wednesday's Fed decision could reconnect crypto to the risk-off mood currently weighing on tech stocks.

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AI labs' slowdown call rattles futures ahead of the Fed

maksim07 — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay over the weekend calling on AI companies to slow the pace of frontier model development, citing the risk of misuse. OpenAI's Sam Altman and xAI's Elon Musk both voiced agreement — Altman separately ruled out an IPO this year on similar grounds. The essay rattled Sunday-night futures: Nasdaq 100 futures fell as much as 1.2%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.6% and Dow futures slipped 0.4%, with AI-linked names slumping in early Asian trading as the new week opened.

What to watch

The Fed's two-day FOMC meeting begins today; the rate decision lands Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00pm ET, alongside the Summary of Economic Projections.
Odds trackers disagree sharply on a 25bp hike — Polymarket puts it near 49%, Kalshi around 57%, CME FedWatch near 60%, while some inflation-driven trackers run as high as 85–90%. Going into the decision, it reads as a genuine coin-flip rather than a settled call.
Wednesday also brings US retail sales and UK CPI; Canada's CPI lands today, with China macro data and UK labour-market figures due Tuesday.
No index-rebalance effective date falls in this window — the next quarterly S&P/Nasdaq-100/FTSE Russell reviews take effect Friday, September 18.

Markets

Wall Street snapped a four-day losing streak on Friday, September 11, as August CPI came in in-line (headline +0.4% month-over-month, core +0.3%, slightly hot but within tolerance). The Dow rose 0.98% to 52,573.29, the S&P 500 gained 0.86% to 7,656.98 and the Nasdaq added 0.96% to 26,333.04 — though all three still closed the week lower. Monday's premarket tone reversed that gain, with futures pointing down on the AI-slowdown story above rather than on any fresh rate-driven catalyst.

In Europe, stocks closed higher on Friday as oil prices fell and UK GDP grew more than expected, though London lagged the continent: the FTSE 100 rose 0.5% to 14,404, while the DAX and CAC 40 each added 0.8% — roughly half a point ahead of London, consistent with the FTSE's heavier commodity and bank weighting underperforming when oil is falling.

Commodities

Oil reversed sharply from Friday's dip after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline — roughly 4 million barrels a day, about 4% of global supply, normally moving crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu — as a precaution following multiple drone attacks launched from Iraq on September 11. Repair estimates run five to six weeks. WTI rose 2.47% to $102.52 a barrel on Monday, with Brent trading near $108. Gold eased to about $4,348.62 an ounce, off the highs above $4,400 hit earlier in the week, as hot US inflation data, rising Treasury yields and Fed hike bets offset Middle East safe-haven demand.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded at $77,537.14 as of 05:56 UTC Monday, up 0.9% from the midnight-UTC open of $76,842.01, after grinding higher steadily through the Asian session overnight with no single catalyst — a gradual bid that carried it to an intraday high of $77,869.82. Ether traded at $2,514.02, up 1.5% from its $2,477.10 open. Among the majors, XRP was the standout mover, up 2.9% to $1.3799; SOL rose 1.75% to $101.04, DOGE gained 2.2% to $0.0842 and BNB added 1.25% to $725.38.

On the regulatory side, the Senate's CLARITY Act — which would codify the current SEC/CFTC crypto-asset classification framework into statute — faces a cloture vote on Tuesday, September 15, the day after the chamber returns from recess, with only 14 working days left before an October recess and 22 through year-end. Sticking points include an ethics clause barring elected officials from launching tokens, DeFi treatment, stablecoin yield, and illicit-finance safeguards. The SEC's own crypto-asset rulemaking, proposed August 19 with a 60-day comment period, and the CFTC's planned market-structure rule, announced August 21 by Chairman Selig, both stand as a regulatory fallback if CLARITY stalls or fails.

What it means for crypto trading

Wednesday's FOMC decision is a genuine coin-flip across prediction markets, not a settled hike-odds consensus, and that's the dominant near-term risk for crypto. Layered on top is Monday's AI-driven risk-off in tech futures, which crypto tends to move with when Nasdaq futures are under pressure, plus a live Middle East oil-supply shock that could keep cross-asset volatility elevated into the decision. A hawkish surprise on Wednesday, on top of an already-jumpy risk-asset tape, is the scenario most likely to hit crypto hard.

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Hot core CPI lifts hike odds to 90%; bitcoin's post-CPI spike fades

maksim07 — Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:00:01 +0100

August's core CPI ran hotter than forecast — up 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, with the annual rate at 2.4% — even as the headline print matched expectations at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. The report landed at 8:30am ET (12:30 UTC) on Friday, and CME FedWatch-tracked odds of a rate hike at next week's September 15–16 FOMC meeting jumped to about 90%, up from roughly 70% ahead of the release. US stocks rallied anyway as investors took relief in the in-line headline figure, even with yields and hike odds both moving higher.

Markets

The S&P 500 closed up 0.96%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.15%, the Nasdaq added 0.88% and the Russell 2000 rose 1.04%, snapping a four-day losing streak. Oracle jumped in early trading after a fiscal first-quarter earnings beat and raised profit guidance. Macy's fell 1.4% despite beating quarterly earnings estimates and raising its full-year outlook.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 closed up about 0.5% near 14,404, while the DAX and CAC 40 each added roughly 0.8% and the Stoxx 600 rose 0.3% — all tracking the post-CPI relief that lifted US futures.

Commodities

Brent crude eased 1.4% to $106.11/bbl, still elevated on the month on Iran-related supply tension, while WTI ticked up 0.1% to $102.59. Gold pulled back from Thursday's highs, opening near $4,359/oz — down 1.1% — before recovering to around $4,387 by mid-morning US trading.

Crypto

Bitcoin whipsawed hard around the CPI release: it dipped toward $76,000 in the initial reaction, then spiked as high as $79,890 in the following hour, before fading back to trade around $77,024 as of 18:58 UTC — up just 0.6% on the day from the $76,568.72 level at the 00:00 UTC open, a far smaller net move than the intraday swing suggested. Ether held its gain better, trading near $2,535.79, up 4.0% from its $2,438.23 open. Among other majors, SOL rose 2.4% to $101.05, BNB gained 1.9% to $722.33, XRP added 1.3% to $1.3523 and DOGE rose 1.3% to $0.08397.

Nothing new broke on the regulatory front inside this window; the Senate's cloture vote on the CLARITY Act's motion to proceed remains scheduled for September 15 — the same day the new FOMC meeting begins.

What it means for crypto trading

Bitcoin's sharp round-trip around the CPI print — spiking more than 4% intraday before giving almost all of it back — is a reminder of how sensitive crypto remains to Fed-rate repricing. With hike odds now near 90% heading into next week's FOMC, the decision itself, and any surprise in the statement or press conference, is the single most likely catalyst to move crypto meaningfully in either direction over the coming week.

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Wall Street's fourth losing day gives way to a CPI test

maksim07 — Fri, 11 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

Wall Street closed a fourth straight losing session on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 0.6%, the Nasdaq off 1.3% and the Dow slipping 0.4%. Futures were only tentatively higher heading into Friday's session, with the market's attention fixed on the morning's August CPI report — the last inflation data point the Fed will see before next week's rate decision.

What to watch

US CPI, due at 8:30am ET Friday: consensus calls for a 0.4% monthly gain and 3.4% year-over-year, covering August prices. It's the final inflation read ahead of the Fed's September 16 FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds of a hike sitting near 70% after Thursday's hotter-than-expected PPI.
Dow futures were up 0.28%, S&P 500 futures up 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 futures roughly flat (+0.02%) in premarket trade.

Markets

Thursday's cash session marked the fourth consecutive daily loss for the major US averages, with the Nasdaq's 1.3% decline the steepest of the three. In Europe, the FTSE 100 closed down 0.7% at 14,357, with Germany's DAX the weakest of the major continental indices and France's CAC 40 posting the smallest decline of the group.

Commodities

Brent crude held near its highest close since May 22, trading above $101 a barrel (WTI around $102-103), up more than 12% for the week as the US-Iran conflict in the Gulf continued to escalate. Gold pulled back to $4,372 an ounce, down 0.79%, giving back part of its move after topping $4,400 earlier in the week.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded at $77,226 as of 05:56 UTC, up 0.9% from the day's UTC open and clawing back most of Thursday's PPI-driven dip to a low of $76,464. Ether changed hands at $2,467, up 1.2%, while SOL, BNB, XRP and DOGE were all higher by roughly 1-1.5% in a broad overnight bounce across majors.

On the regulatory side, the SEC advanced its newly proposed "Regulation Crypto Assets" rulemaking, aimed at clarifying when digital assets fall under federal securities law, even as the Clarity Act — the broader crypto market-structure bill dividing SEC/CFTC oversight — remains stalled in Congress.

What it means for crypto trading

Friday's CPI print is the near-term swing factor: a hotter-than-expected number keeps hike odds elevated and would likely extend pressure on both equities and crypto, while a cooler reading could spark a relief bounce across risk assets. Brent's climb toward $103 a barrel on the ongoing US-Iran conflict remains the other live tail risk worth watching alongside the data.

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Hot PPI lifts Fed hike odds to 70%; stocks and crypto slide

maksim07 — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 20:00:01 +0100

A hotter-than-expected August PPI report — wholesale inflation at 5.4% year-over-year, with core PPI also running above forecast — pushed CME FedWatch-tracked odds of a rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting to 70%, up from roughly 62% before the data landed at 8:30am ET (12:30 UTC) on Thursday. US stocks and crypto both sold off in response, with bitcoin's sharpest drop of the day landing in the same hour as the print.

Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 405.41 points (-0.8%) to close at 52,380.66. The S&P 500 slid 37.16 points (-0.5%) to 7,636.36. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 168.07 points (-0.6%) to 26,253.34. The small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed, down roughly 1.3%. Seven of the S&P 500's 11 sectors closed in the red, with rising Treasury yields on Middle East uncertainty compounding the inflation-driven selling.

European benchmarks fell broadly alongside Wall Street. The FTSE 100 closed down 0.7% at 14,357, the DAX was the session's weakest major continental index, and the CAC 40 held the smallest loss of the three. There was no distinct EMEA-specific catalyst beyond the same US PPI print and the ongoing US-Iran conflict weighing on sentiment globally.

Commodities

Brent crude held near $101.25/bbl, essentially flat on the day (+0.04%), still elevated near multi-month highs on the US-Iran conflict that has dominated the week's oil narrative; WTI traded around $96-97/bbl. Gold held steady near $4,405-4,406/oz, little changed from Wednesday's close — a pause after Wednesday's push above $4,400.

Crypto

Bitcoin fell to $77,242.01 as of 18:56 UTC, down 1.4% from the day's 00:00 UTC open of $78,306.43. The day's low of $76,676.07 printed between 12:00 and 13:00 UTC — the same hour as the PPI release — before a partial recovery. Ether was little changed, off about 0.1% to $2,466.02. Among the majors, XRP was the standout laggard, down 2.8% to $1.356; SOL fell 1.6% to $99.90; BNB fell 1.2% to $713.70; and DOGE fell 2.5% to $0.08402.

On the regulatory side, the Clarity Act market-structure legislation remains pending in Congress, with the CFTC chairman reiterating that the agency will propose its own digital-asset market-structure rules if the bill stalls in September.

What it means for crypto trading

With rate-hike odds for next week's FOMC now above 70% ahead of Friday's August CPI report, crypto remains directly hostage to the inflation data cycle. A hot CPI print would likely push hike odds higher still and could pressure bitcoin back toward Thursday's $76.7k intraday low; a soft print would open room for a relief bounce. The PPI-driven selloff underscores that, for now, crypto is trading as a rate-sensitive risk asset rather than decoupling from equities.

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Gold tops $4,400 as Wall Street logs a third day of losses

maksim07 — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

Gold climbed to $4,400.21 an ounce as of Wednesday's session, up 1.02% and snapping a three-day pullback as a weaker dollar drew in buyers. The move came alongside a third straight losing session for US equities and oil holding near $101 a barrel, as markets continued to digest the escalation between the US and Iran.

What to watch

August's Producer Price Index lands at 8:30am ET today, a preview for tomorrow's Consumer Price Index release. The next Federal Reserve rate decision is September 16, with the market currently pricing roughly 57% odds of a 25-basis-point hike — a reflection of the inflation pressure building from the recent oil spike.

Markets

US stocks closed lower for a third consecutive day on Wednesday as Treasury yields climbed to fresh 52-week highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 405.41 points, or 0.77%, to 52,380.66; the S&P 500 lost 0.48% to 7,636.36; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.64% to 26,253.34.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 slipped 0.23%, Germany's DAX fell 0.42%, France's CAC 40 lost 0.58%, and the FTSE MIB shed 0.95%. The Stoxx 600 opened roughly 0.49% lower, with retail, travel and banking names leading the declines as the regional risk-off tone tracked Wall Street's.

Commodities

Brent crude surged 3.4% to $101.21 a barrel, with WTI near $96.05, after US forces struck five Iranian oil tankers in response to an IRGC attack on a US warship — pushing Brent above $100 for the first time in roughly a month. Gold's move to $4,400.21 came as the dollar's softness offset some of that same risk-off pressure.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded at $78,536 as of 05:55 UTC, up 0.29% from the 00:00 UTC open of $78,306.43, holding within a narrow $77,952–$78,550 overnight range. Ether traded at $2,481.85, up 0.56% from its own midnight open. Among the other majors, SOL added 0.46%, BNB was roughly flat, XRP eased 0.32% and DOGE slipped 0.17% — a quiet, rangebound night for crypto with no standout mover, a milder overnight picture than the sharper "crypto slide" some outlets described.

What it means for crypto trading

Today's PPI print and tomorrow's CPI report are the near-term catalysts to watch: a hot inflation reading would harden the market's bet on a September 16 hike and likely pressure risk assets, crypto included, while a soft print would let bitcoin extend its current quiet consolidation. Oil's climb toward $101 remains the wildcard underpinning the inflation story — a further leg higher on Iran-related supply risk would tighten the read-through to both the Fed's decision and crypto positioning heading into next week.

Sources:

US sinks Iranian tankers; Brent tops $100 and stocks slide

maksim07 — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 20:00:01 +0100

US forces sank four Iranian tankers in the Gulf of Oman and destroyed a fifth near Kharg Island on Tuesday, a sharp escalation in the US-Iran conflict. The news sent Brent crude above $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July — a roughly $20 rebound from early August's sub-$80 lows — and dragged risk assets lower into the close.

Markets

US stocks fell across the board: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 300 points (-0.6%), the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite gave up 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 retreated 0.5%. The VIX jumped as Treasury yields climbed on the mounting inflation pressure from the oil shock.

European equities fell harder than Wall Street. The FTSE 100 closed down 1.4%, the DAX fell 1.6%, and the CAC 40 dropped nearly 2% in a broad continental selloff tracking the same oil-and-rates shock.

Commodities

Brent crude traded above $100 a barrel, up roughly 2% on the day and its first visit to that level since July. European natural gas jumped too, advancing close to 4% toward 79 EUR/MWh — its highest settlement since late 2022.

Crypto

Bitcoin spiked to $79,760 during the European morning, up about 1.7% from Tuesday's roughly $78,456 UTC close, as oil-driven inflation-hedging flows briefly lifted it. It then rolled over alongside equities during the US/European risk-off selloff, ending essentially flat near $78,460 as of 19:00 UTC. Ether saw a similar round trip, from a high near $2,523 back down to about $2,482, down roughly 0.1% on the day. Among majors, BNB underperformed, down about 1.6% to $739.9, and DOGE fell about 1.5% to $0.0887; SOL and XRP were little changed.

No concrete new crypto-regulatory development broke in the window — the SEC's "Regulation Crypto Assets" proposal remains in its comment period and the Clarity Act remains stalled in Congress, both unchanged from prior coverage.

What it means for crypto trading

Crypto tracked the oil-driven risk-off swing intraday — rallying with the initial inflation-hedge bid, then giving it back as equities sold off — but held its overnight gains rather than breaking down outright with stocks. Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI prints, landing on top of a live Middle East supply shock, are the real catalyst to watch: a hot inflation surprise stacked on this oil spike is what would firm up hawkish Fed repricing and could trigger a genuine crypto drawdown, not this session's round trip.

Sources:

Crypto ticks higher overnight as Wall Street nurses a 627-point Dow drop

maksim07 — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

Crypto drifted modestly higher overnight even as Wall Street sat with Tuesday's 627-point, oil-driven Dow slide. The Dow Jones fell 1.17% to close at 52,788 on Tuesday as Brent crude spiked toward $100 a barrel following Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia's oil-producing south, and by the following session bitcoin, ether and most majors had quietly ticked into the green — a mild divergence from equities' risk-off tone that's worth watching into the week's inflation data.

What to watch

PPI lands Thursday, September 10, before the open.
August CPI follows Friday, September 11, before the open — the week's key inflation read ahead of the Fed's next decision.
The next FOMC decision is Wednesday, September 16 at 2pm ET, with markets pricing roughly a coin-flip (55-57%) chance of a 25bp hike — an unusual setup in which traders are leaning toward tightening risk rather than cuts.
No major index rebalance is imminent: the Nasdaq-100/S&P September quarterly review goes effective at Monday September 21's open, following the September 18 review date, so this isn't rebalance week.

Markets

The Dow's Tuesday slide was led by Amgen (-10.15%), Salesforce (-3.94%) and Home Depot (-2.32%), as higher energy costs weighed on the outlook for corporate margins and raised the risk of firmer rates.

In Europe, the session was quiet and mixed: the FTSE 100 slipped 0.10% to 10,811.66, the CAC 40 edged up 0.14% to 8,317.98, and the DAX was little changed near 26,007.63. Stoxx 600 futures pointed roughly 0.2% lower heading into the session, with no EMEA-specific catalyst beyond the broader Middle East/oil overhang.

Commodities

Brent crude spiked as high as $99.46 a barrel Tuesday — a six-week high — before settling near $97.92-98, after Houthi drone and missile strikes hit Saudi Arabia's oil-producing south, wounding more than 70 people and halting operations including part of the 400,000-barrel-per-day Jazan refinery. WTI traded near $93 a barrel. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI forecasts by $5 apiece (to $85 and $80 for December 2026), warning Brent could top $120 in 2027 if Gulf output stays materially below pre-war levels. Gold traded near $4,395 an ounce, up roughly 1.45% on the week on continued safe-haven demand tied to the conflict.

Crypto

As of 05:56 UTC, bitcoin traded at $78,924, up 0.6% from the 00:00 UTC open of $78,455.80, with a day range of $78,455.79-$79,370.01. Ether traded at $2,496.11, up 0.45% from its $2,485.06 open, ranging $2,485.07-$2,513.87. Solana added 0.65% to $104.04, and XRP was the standout major, up 0.69% to $1.4269. Dogecoin rose 0.56% to $0.0901, while BNB was roughly flat at $751.38, down 0.09%. No fresh crypto-regulatory development broke in this window; the SEC's "Regulation Crypto Assets" proposal remains in its public comment period from prior weeks.

What it means for crypto trading

Crypto's modest overnight bounce against an equity market still nursing an oil-driven selloff is a mild decoupling signal, but the real test is this week's inflation data. Thursday's PPI and Friday's August CPI will set the tone into next week's FOMC decision, where hike odds already sit near a coin flip — a hot CPI print would firm those bets fastest and likely hit crypto hardest, while a soft one would be the more supportive setup for a further grind higher.

Sources:

Houthi strikes on Saudi oil facilities push Brent near $100

maksim07 — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 20:00:01 +0100

A wave of Houthi drone and missile strikes hit Saudi Arabia's southern oil-producing region on Tuesday, wounding 73 people and halting operations at several energy facilities, including part of the 400,000-barrel-per-day Jazan refinery, one of the kingdom's largest. The attacks struck Abha, Jazan, Najran and Khamis Mushait; the Houthis said they were retaliation for recent Saudi strikes on the group inside Yemen. The news pushed Brent crude toward $100 a barrel and weighed on risk assets through the US and European sessions, adding a fresh flashpoint to a week already carrying Canada's retaliatory tariffs and lingering US-Iran tanker tensions.

Markets

US equities closed the session lower: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.1%. Declines were led by Apple (-2.55%), Alphabet (-2.10%) and Microsoft (-2.05%), while Caterpillar (+1.65%), Honeywell (+0.95%) and Home Depot (+0.88%) held up.

European markets were softer in sympathy: the Stoxx 600 fell 0.2%, Germany's DAX shed 0.2%, London's FTSE 100 was little changed, and France's CAC 40 dropped 0.4% to 8,263.13. The driver across the region was the same oil-price jump from the Saudi attack rather than any local catalyst.

Commodities

Brent crude traded near $99.85 a barrel and WTI near $92.40, both firmer on the Saudi facility outage — Brent's third straight advancing session. Gold moved the other way, easing roughly 0.6% to about $4,410 an ounce even as equities sold off, pressured by firming bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting.

Crypto

As of 18:56-18:59 UTC, bitcoin traded at $78,397.36, down 0.90% from the day's 00:00 UTC open of $79,112.01, having fallen as low as $77,620.01 around the US cash-equity open before paring the loss. Ether held near $2,483.94, down 0.25% from its $2,490.12 open. The standout mover was XRP, up 2.33% to $1.4293, with BNB also higher, up 1.22% to $749.02; SOL slipped 0.39% to $103.39 and DOGE fell 1.09% to $0.08952. There was no new crypto-regulatory development in the window — the SEC's "Regulation Crypto Assets" proposal remains in its comment period and the Senate's procedural vote on the CLARITY Act stays scheduled for September 15.

What it means for crypto trading

Bitcoin and ether pulled back alongside equities on the Saudi attack headlines, but the move was orderly rather than a disorderly flight — XRP and BNB both gained on the day, arguing against a broad crypto risk-off signal. The catalyst most likely to actually move crypto from here is the Fed's September 15-16 decision, now essentially a coin-flip on a hike: further Gulf escalation that pushes oil and yields higher into that meeting raises the odds of a hawkish surprise, which remains the real tail risk for crypto and other risk assets.

Sources:

Canada's $20bn tariffs bite as Wall Street returns from Labor Day

maksim07 — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

US markets reopened Tuesday from the Labor Day break under fresh pressure on two fronts: Canada's counter-tariffs on roughly C$27.6bn ($20bn) of US goods — including 50% duties on steel and aluminum — took effect at midnight, and oil stayed elevated after the US disabled three Iranian oil tankers on September 5 in retaliation for Iranian missiles targeting two US Navy ships. S&P 500 futures softened into the open, with the cash index near 7,707, off roughly 0.15% from Friday's close.

What to watch

August CPI is due Friday, September 11, at 8:30am ET — the week's key data point.
The next FOMC decision lands September 16, with roughly 60% odds currently priced for a 25-basis-point hike.
Congress's Clarity Act crypto market-structure vote is expected sometime this month; CFTC chair Selig has said the agency will propose its own digital-asset rules if the bill stalls.

Markets

Friday's last session — the final one before the holiday closure — left the S&P 500 down 0.4% at 7,718.60, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.5% at 53,414.25, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.3% at 26,506.99. Futures pointed to a cautious Tuesday reopen as traders weighed the new Canadian tariffs alongside persistent rate-hike risk.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 closed Monday's session up 0.2% at 14,666, the CAC 40 gained 0.33%, and the DAX slipped 0.25%; the pan-European Stoxx 600 finished roughly flat. Oil & gas was the standout sector, up 1.29%, as energy prices firmed on the Middle East tanker exchanges.

Commodities

WTI crude traded near $92.4 a barrel, little changed on the day despite the weekend's tanker strikes. Gold held near $4,432 an ounce, consolidating within its recent range.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded at $78,579 as of 06:00 UTC, down 0.7% from the midnight UTC open, while ether sat at $2,473, also down 0.7%. BNB was the session's standout, up 1.4% to $750.51, while SOL, XRP and DOGE each slipped between 0.6% and 0.9%.

On the regulatory side, CFTC chair Selig said the agency is prepared to propose its own digital-asset market-structure rules if the Clarity Act stalls in Congress this month — a concrete fallback that keeps a deadline on the legislative push regardless of how the vote goes.

What it means for crypto trading

Tariff-driven and Iran-linked inflation risk are the two threads keeping Fed hike odds near 60% heading into the September 16 FOMC, and Friday's CPI print is the next real catalyst that could move that number in either direction. With BTC and ETH both essentially flat to slightly lower on the session, crypto is trading in a tight, wait-and-see range ahead of that data — BNB's outperformance is the one divergence worth watching for signs of rotation.

Sources:

Hot jobs print pushes hike odds to 60%; bitcoin gives back 1.8%

maksim07 — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 20:29:49 +0100

US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly three times the 55,000 consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The stronger-than-expected print sent stocks and crypto lower as traders raised bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike at this month's meeting to roughly 58-60% on fed funds futures — the latest swing in a hawkish-versus-dovish tug-of-war that has whipsawed markets all week, from Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 to Governor Waller's dovish comments on Wednesday, September 2.

Markets

The Dow fell about 304 points (-0.6%), the S&P 500 slid 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.4%. Lululemon plunged on an earnings miss. Utilities was the only S&P sector to close in the green, while consumer cyclicals and communication services led the declines.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 closed essentially flat at 10,828.14, the DAX 40 rose to 26,048.38 after holding positive territory all session, and the CAC 40 finished fractionally lower. The modest split reflects a lack of a strong regional catalyst beyond the US jobs data rather than any sharp sector divergence.

Commodities

Brent crude eased to $95.23/bbl (-0.3% on the day) and WTI slipped to $91.07/bbl (-0.25%), both still elevated after the week's Iran-related spike but drifting down as the immediate shock fades. Gold fell 1.5% to $4,471.39/oz as firmer rate-hike odds pressured the metal.

Crypto

As of 19:29 UTC, bitcoin traded at $79,790.58, down 1.82% from the day's 00:00 UTC open of $81,270.37, with a range of $78,660-$81,427.75. Nearly all of the drop landed in the 12:00-13:00 UTC hour (-2.18%, from $81,224.86 to $79,453.96, with an intra-hour low of $79,177.77) — squarely the hour of the 8:30am ET / 12:30pm UTC jobs release, confirming the report as the direct trigger rather than a broader crypto-specific move. Ether fell 2.02% to $2,456.94. XRP was the session's biggest major-alt loser, down 3.21% to $1.4046, with dogecoin close behind at -3.22% to $0.08499. Solana slid 1.91% to $101.95, while BNB was the most resilient major, down just 0.54% to $721.30. (Earlier Friday-morning articles reporting bitcoin "holding above $81,000" were filed before the 12:30 UTC jobs release and don't reflect the day's actual move.)

No new crypto-regulatory action broke in this window; the SEC's mid-August "Regulation Crypto Assets" proposal and the pending Clarity Act vote remain the live threads, unchanged today.

What it means for crypto trading

This was not a decoupled crypto move — the sell-off across BTC, ETH and the majors tracks a straightforward repricing of Fed hike odds triggered by a hot jobs print, in lockstep with the equity reaction. The catalyst that matters next is inflation data due next week, which the Fed has signaled will decide this month's rate call: a soft print could revive the dip-buying seen after Wednesday's Waller comments, while a hot one would extend today's slide across both risk assets and crypto.

Sources:

Stocks rally on Waller's dovish turn as bitcoin retakes $81k

maksim07 — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

US stocks rallied Wednesday, September 3, snapping a three-day losing streak after Fed Governor Waller said a rate hike wouldn't be warranted if underlying inflation keeps slowing. Treasury yields eased on the remarks — a dovish note that sits in tension with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech on August 28, which had already pushed September rate-hike odds to roughly 57-60% on fed funds futures.

What to watch

The August jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) lands Thursday at 8:30am ET, the week's key release, alongside wholesale inventories at 10:00am ET. The next FOMC meeting is September 15-16, and fed funds futures are still pricing around 55-60% odds of a 25-basis-point hike rather than a cut — an unusual setup that reflects Warsh's hawkish tilt more than Waller's.

Markets

The S&P 500 gained 1.06% to close at 7,747.71, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.18% (+624.16 points) to 53,686.11, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.4% to 26,584.06. AI stocks led the Nasdaq's advance; Broadcom fell despite beating earnings estimates.

In Europe, as of the September 2 close (the most recent available), the FTSE 100 outperformed with a 0.29% gain on its commodity- and bank-heavy weighting, while continental bourses lagged: the DAX fell 1.09%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.79%, Spain's Ibex slipped 0.34%, and Italy's FTSE MIB edged up 0.10%. The divergence tracked Iran-linked oil price gains and rising long-term bond yields, which hit continental industrials harder than London's resource-heavy index.

Commodities

Brent crude traded near $99.38 a barrel and WTI opened around $90.58, both lifted by renewed Middle East tension tied to Iran. Gold held near $4,491 an ounce, close to record territory.

Crypto

Bitcoin surged 4.0% to $81,209.47, its first trip above $82,000 intraday since May 11, while ether climbed 4.2% to $2,518.82. The move was part of a broader risk-on rally — over $1.45 trillion added across global markets — driven by falling Treasury yields and cooling near-term rate-hike expectations after Waller's comments.

On regulation, the SEC formally proposed "Regulation Crypto Assets" on August 18, a tailored offering regime creating two fundraising exemptions and one investment-contract safe harbor for crypto projects, aimed at reducing incentives for issuers to move offshore and expanding investor access with stronger protections. Public comments are due October 20. Separately, the Clarity Act — which would split crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC — is widely seen as dead for 2026 after missing its legislative window when the Senate adjourned for August recess without voting.

What it means for crypto trading

Friday's jobs report is the pivot point for both equities and crypto. A soft print would reinforce Waller's dovish case and likely extend the rally as rate-hike odds fade further; a hot print would revive Warsh's hawkish case — with hike odds already exceeding cut odds for the September 15-16 meeting — and could sharply reverse today's risk-on move.

Sources:

Iran strikes send oil to a 20-month high; Wall Street shrugs it off

maksim07 — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 20:00:01 +0100

Iran struck US allies Jordan, the UAE and Kuwait with missiles and drones overnight, in retaliation for fresh American airstrikes on Iranian military targets. The Strait of Hormuz shock reignited an inflation scare: Brent crude surged to a 20-month high near $99.38/bbl, the 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.80% — its highest since January 2025 — and borrowing costs in Japan and the UK pushed toward multi-decade highs. Yields eased back to 4.75% as the US session wore on, and equities staged an afternoon rally despite the risk-off open.

Markets

US indices closed higher as of the close on September 3: the S&P 500 added 0.58% to 7,711.30, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.78% to 53,478.18, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.80% to 26,427.55. Snowflake soared more than 20% on a blowout quarter, Dell Technologies jumped 15.8%, Nvidia rose on news it will acquire AI platform Hugging Face, and Robinhood gained on analyst upgrades. Broadcom shares fell despite beating earnings estimates. Industrials led sector gains, with financials and consumer cyclicals also strong as investors rotated into growth names.

EMEA diverged from the US: the FTSE 100 added 0.29%, its oil-and-gas-heavy weighting cushioning it against the same forces hitting the continent, while the DAX fell 1.09% and the CAC 40 dropped 0.79%, both hit harder by the spike in yields and Iran-driven risk aversion.

Commodities

Oil surged on Hormuz-shock fears: Brent hit $99.38/bbl, a 20-month high, while WTI opened at $90.58/bbl. Gold rose about 2.3% to roughly $4,490/oz on safe-haven demand.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded little changed near $77,900, down 0.1% versus Wednesday's open, briefly dipping below $77,000 intraday. Ethereum was down roughly 1%, trading near $2,390-$2,495 depending on the source. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $101.15 million in net inflows on September 2, led by BlackRock's IBIT with $115 million, following a $236.5 million outflow the prior day — a pattern that reads as selective rotation rather than a broad exit. Altcoin ETF flows (ETH, XRP, SOL) were mixed across sources.

What it means for crypto trading

Crypto is currently trading off the same oil-and-yield axis as equities, not off any crypto-specific news — there was no concrete regulatory development in this window. The near-term catalyst most likely to move crypto is a further escalation near the Strait of Hormuz, or a hawkish outcome at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, where market-implied odds currently lean toward a hold or even a 25-basis-point hike, not a cut, under new Fed chair Kevin Warsh.

Sources:

Bond yields hit 2.5-year high as Iran war reignites Fed hike bets

maksim07 — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

Global bond markets sold off sharply as of Wednesday's close, September 2, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.81% — its highest level since November 2023 — as renewed fighting between Israel and Iran collided with a fast-shifting Fed outlook. Markets are now pricing roughly 66% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike this month, up from about 40% a week earlier, a striking reversal from the rate-cut narrative that had prevailed for much of the year. US equities nonetheless closed higher on Wednesday even as yields ran up.

What to watch

Thursday, September 3 brings initial jobless claims, the ISM Services PMI for August (consensus 54.5), the July trade balance and final Q2 unit labor costs/productivity, all due at 8:30am–10:00am ET. The August jobs report follows Friday, September 4. The FOMC next meets September 15–16, with market pricing now leaning toward a hike rather than a cut.

Markets

The S&P 500 rose 0.46% to 7,666.60 on Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.45% to 26,217.83, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.56% (+295.07 points) to 53,061.95, as Treasury yields took a brief pause from their run-up. Futures pointed to a flat-to-slightly-lower open Thursday (S&P futures -0.04%, Nasdaq 100 futures -0.1%, Dow futures little changed) amid renewed US-Iran tension.

In Europe, the mood was more downbeat: the FTSE 100 fell 0.32% to 10,789.28, the DAX dropped 1.10% to 25,970.11 — the hardest-hit of the majors — the CAC 40 slipped 0.39% to 8,301.85, and the Stoxx 600 hovered near one-month lows, down 0.1%. The renewed Middle East fighting pushed oil higher and stoked inflation and tighter-policy concerns, while European government bond yields climbed in step with the global sell-off.

Commodities

Brent crude traded near $96.11 a barrel and WTI around $90.72, both elevated on the Israel-Iran escalation. Gold, by contrast, slipped to roughly $4,334 an ounce (December futures $4,377.20, -0.4% on the day) as rate-hike bets — rather than cut bets — weighed on the metal.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded around $76,597 and ether around $2,374.18, down 3.10% over 24 hours and 3.30% over the past week, both pressured by the reignited Iran war and building Fed rate-hike expectations.

On regulation, the SEC advanced its "Regulation Crypto Assets" proposal — the agency's first permanent rulemaking for digital assets, per Chairman Paul Atkins — laying out pathways for crypto issuers to raise capital under federal securities law and a safe harbor once an issuer's managerial efforts under an investment contract are complete. Separately, the CLARITY Act is widely seen as dead for 2026 after missing its legislative window when the Senate adjourned for August recess without a vote.

What it means for crypto trading

The live risk factor is a hawkish Fed repricing — hike odds rising, not cuts — layered on top of Middle East escalation. Rising real yields, with the 10-year at a 2.5-year high, are compressing risk appetite across equities and crypto alike; any oil-driven inflation surprise or a firmer Fed hike signal ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting would likely extend the bitcoin and ether drawdown.

Sources:

Iran strikes send oil, yields surging; Dow still adds 294 points

maksim07 — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 20:00:01 +0100

The dominant story of the day was geopolitical: the US and Iran traded fresh strikes, with US Central Command hitting Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliating against Gulf neighbors and US military assets in the region. President Trump said the strikes answered an Iranian attempt to mine the strait and an earlier attack on a US base, and warned of further action if Tehran responded again. Oil and Treasury yields jumped on the news; gold, oddly, fell — rate-hike bets outweighed the usual safe-haven bid.

Markets

US stocks closed higher despite the shock. The S&P 500 finished at 7,647.61 (+16.14pts, +0.21%), the Dow rose to 53,060.57 (+293.69pts, +0.56%), and the Nasdaq edged up to 26,110.72 (+10.94pts, +0.04%). The Russell 2000 lagged, down 1.23%. Energy and defense names led the advance — Marathon Petroleum hit a 52-week high — while travel and leisure names (Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, VICI Properties, Carnival) touched 52-week lows. Separately, ADP reported private payrolls added just 38,000 jobs in August, below both July's 46,000 and the 47,000 estimate, the slowest pace since January.

Europe was softer as the same yield and Middle East pressures crossed the Atlantic: the Stoxx 600 traded below the flatline, the DAX opened about 0.2% down, the FTSE 100 dipped roughly 0.1%, and the CAC 40 sat just below flat. Media stocks led losses (-1.4%), with autos and parts names also weak (-1.2%), as global bond yields ticked higher on government-debt concerns layered onto the Iran news.

Commodities

Brent crude traded in the $94.50-96 range (opening at $95.20, touching $96.11), while WTI held around $90.70-91 a barrel after jumping 5.2% the prior session — its biggest one-day gain in five weeks — on fears that Hormuz oil flows could be disrupted. Gold, meanwhile, slipped to about $4,357.50/oz from a $4,377.20 open, down more than 0.4%, as rate-hike expectations dominated over the geopolitical bid.

Crypto

Bitcoin opened at $77,395.89 (-1.5% versus Tuesday) and fell further to roughly $76,597 in early US trading. Ethereum opened at $2,417.66 (-2.0%) and slid to about $2,373.76. Both moved down in step with the broader risk-off tone from the Iran escalation.

On the regulatory side, the Clarity Act market-structure bill faces a critical vote this month, with odds described as being at record lows heading into the window. Separately, the SEC proposed new "Regulation Crypto Assets" rules on August 18 aimed at a clearer framework for crypto investment contracts, and the SEC and CFTC continue harmonizing oversight through a shared five-category taxonomy and joint initiatives.

Meanwhile the US 10-year Treasury yield hit an intraday high of 4.814%, its highest level since November 2023. The next FOMC meeting is September 15-16 under Chair Kevin Warsh; prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket currently price roughly 60% odds of a 25bp hike versus a hold, and only about 1% odds of a cut — a sharp reversal from earlier rate-cut expectations. The Fed had held rates at 3.50-3.75% at its July 29 meeting.

What it means for crypto trading

A war-driven spike in oil and Treasury yields is colliding with a hawkish Fed repricing toward a hike rather than a cut at the September 15-16 FOMC — a genuine double headwind for risk assets. Expect crypto to keep trading in correlation with broader risk-off flows until either Strait of Hormuz tensions ease or the FOMC outcome removes the rate-hike overhang.

Sources:

Hormuz strikes hit stocks; Fed hike odds jump to 60%

maksim07 — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

The dominant story overnight was a fresh escalation between the US and Iran: the US struck Iran on September 1 after what it said was a failed Iranian attempt to mine the Strait of Hormuz and target a US base in Jordan, following an attack on two supertankers in the strait on August 31. Iran retaliated with strikes on US-linked targets in Jordan — King Hussein Air Base and Al-Azraq Air Base, with Jordan's military saying it shot down eight incoming missiles — and a drone incident the UAE engaged over its territorial waters. US Central Command said it hit Iranian air defense, communications and radar sites in response. Equities fell on the news, compounding an already-hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve.

What to watch

Today's US calendar brings the ADP Employment Report (8:15am ET), Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders (10:00am ET), and the Fed's Beige Book (2:00pm ET); the Bank of Canada also holds a policy meeting. The bigger date to watch is the September 15–16 FOMC meeting: after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech on August 28 — warning that "inflation is running above our 2% target" — market-implied odds of a 25bp hike jumped to about 60%, from roughly 35% before he spoke, reversing what had been rate-cut expectations. The Fed's target range has held at 3.50–3.75% since a hold at the July 29 meeting.

Markets

The S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 7,631.47, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.03% to 26,099.77, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 419.02 points (0.79%) to 52,766.88. Nike closed at $38.07, its lowest level in over two decades, while Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, VICI Properties and Carnival all touched 52-week lows as travel and leisure names absorbed the oil-driven cost and demand worries. The major indices remain on track for a fourth straight annual gain if the trend holds.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 slipped 0.32% to 10,789.28, the CAC 40 fell 0.39% to 8,301.85, and the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 0.80% to 6,368.98. The DAX was the hardest hit of the major EMEA benchmarks, down 1.10% to 25,970.11 — a reflection of Germany's heavier exposure to energy and industrial input costs, versus London's commodity- and bank-heavy index offering more of a cushion.

Commodities

Brent crude traded near $94.11 a barrel, advancing for a second straight session as the Strait of Hormuz strikes and Iran's retaliation against Jordan and the UAE raised the risk to a critical global oil corridor. Gold, by contrast, slid to the $4,302–$4,450/oz range — a two-week low — as hawkish Fed rate-hike expectations raised the opportunity cost of holding bullion and outweighed the metal's usual safe-haven bid during a live military escalation.

Crypto

Bitcoin opened September 1 at $78,559.11, up 1.1% from Monday, before slipping to $77,945.97 by mid-morning ET as inflation concerns weighed on risk appetite. Ethereum opened at $2,467.13 (+2% from Monday) and eased to $2,454.23 over the same stretch. On the regulatory side, the SEC on August 18 proposed "Regulation Crypto Assets," its first major bespoke crypto rulemaking — a "fit-for-purpose" framework that would let certain crypto investment-contract offerings proceed without full Securities Act registration, with a safe harbor once an issuer has wound down the managerial efforts it promised. The proposal's public comment period runs 60 days from Federal Register publication, marking a shift after roughly a decade of the SEC leaning mainly on informal guidance and enforcement.

What it means for crypto trading

The near-term risk for crypto is the convergence of two live catalysts: a Fed that has swung from rate-cut expectations to roughly 60% odds of a September hike, and an escalating Mideast conflict threatening Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Bitcoin and Ethereum are already softening on inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC decision, and a confirmed hike would likely extend pressure across risk assets broadly. Further escalation around Hormuz — or any surprise from the Beige Book on inflation — is the more immediate wildcard between now and the Fed meeting.

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Hormuz tanker attacks send oil to $94, stocks and gold lower

maksim07 — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:00:01 +0100

September opened with a risk-off session across markets as renewed US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz — two tankers, one Saudi-owned and one South Korean-owned, hit by projectiles overnight — sent Brent crude toward $94 a barrel and drove a global bond selloff. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 5%, and the 30-year has now spent 55 days above 5% in 2026, the most of any year since 2006.

Markets

US indices closed lower as of the September 1 session: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7% (-374.09 points) to 53,185.90, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,686.14, and the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.1% to 26,370.89. Chip stocks bore the brunt of the selling — the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 2%, Intel dropped 3%, Micron fell 3.1% premarket, and Nvidia and AMD also slipped — as higher yields hit high-multiple growth names on top of rate-hike fears tied to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent hawkish comments on sticky inflation.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 fell 0.32% to 10,789.28, the DAX dropped 1.10% to 25,970.11 — the weakest of the major indices, led lower by rate-sensitive industrials — and the CAC 40 fell 0.39% to 8,301.85. All three tracked the same Hormuz-and-yields story driving US markets.

Commodities

Brent crude rose toward $94 a barrel on the tanker attacks and fears of further disruption to a strait that handles roughly 20% of world oil traffic. Gold, by contrast, fell to around $4,331-$4,350 an ounce, a two-week low, as rising rate-hike expectations outweighed the usual safe-haven bid from geopolitical tension.

Crypto

Bitcoin fell to about $77,946 as of mid-morning ET, giving back an earlier gain after opening near $78,559 (itself up 1.1% from Monday). Ethereum fell to roughly $2,454, down from an opening near $2,467. Both tracked the broader risk-off move seen across gold and equities rather than trading on their own catalyst.

On regulation, the SEC's newly proposed "Regulation Crypto Assets" framework (announced mid-August) continues to advance alongside deepening SEC-CFTC harmonization — joint interpretive guidance, a CFTC Innovation Task Force, and a shared five-category taxonomy for crypto assets. The industry's bigger legislative bet, the Clarity Act market-structure bill, remains stalled, with little confidence among executives that it clears Congress this session.

What it means for crypto trading

Crypto is currently trading as a rate-sensitive risk asset rather than decoupling on its own regulatory narrative. The SEC-CFTC framework progress is constructive medium-term, but today's move was driven by the same forces hitting equities and gold: a hawkish Fed repricing toward a September rate hike, amplified by an oil-driven inflation shock from the Hormuz escalation. A further escalation there, or continued hawkish Fed commentary, is the nearer-term downside catalyst to watch — not a regulatory deadline.

Sources:

Iran strikes jolt oil and stocks as Fed hike odds pass 50%

maksim07 — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 07:00:01 +0100

The US and Iran traded fire again near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, sending crude higher and knocking equities lower into the close of August. The move compounds a shift already under way in rates: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28 pushed September rate-hike odds from roughly one-in-three to above 50%, an unusual hike-leaning setup heading into the next FOMC meeting.

What to watch

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for August is due today at 10am ET, the first notable data point of the new month. The next FOMC decision lands on September 16; futures currently price around 56% odds of a 25-basis-point hike versus 44% for no change — a reminder that the market's next move is being framed as a hike risk, not a cut, for the first time in this cycle.

Markets

US stocks closed August 31 lower: the S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 7,686.14, the Dow lost 374 points (-0.7%) to 53,185.90, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.12% to 26,370.89. PayPal was the session's standout loser, tumbling as the fallout continued from Stripe and Advent International's abandonment of their $53 billion takeover bid, which had briefly driven the stock up around 30% before the deal fell apart.

In Europe, FTSE 100 trading was closed for the UK's summer bank holiday. Germany's DAX fell 0.7%, the region's worst performer, ahead of euro-area inflation data, while the Stoxx 600 eased 0.1% to about 655.5 — still on course for a fifth consecutive monthly gain despite the Iran-driven volatility.

Commodities

WTI crude rose to roughly $86.57 a barrel (+0.9%), extending Monday's 2.6% jump to about $85.60 as the renewed US-Iran exchange revived concerns over shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold pulled back below $4,450 an ounce, retreating on the hawkish Fed repricing and a firmer dollar.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded around $77,700-$78,000 and ether around $2,450-$2,480, both softer as rate-hike expectations and dollar strength weighed on risk assets. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $202 million net outflow, ending a nine-day inflow streak that had helped drive August's roughly 23% price surge and a brief break above $81,000.

What it means for crypto trading

The combination of a hike-leaning Fed and an escalating Iran/oil shock is a classic risk-off setup for crypto: a stronger dollar and higher real-rate expectations directly compete with non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold. The near-term catalysts to watch are today's ISM print, any further Strait of Hormuz escalation that could keep energy costs elevated, and the September 16 FOMC decision itself — a confirmed hike would likely extend the pressure on both crypto and gold, while a hold could spark a relief rally.

Sources:

The site now has a News section

maksim07 — Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Longer write-ups — strategy analyses, backtest results, risk-management notes — continue to live in the blog. This new section is for the shorter things: release notes, changes to the research pipeline, general financial and crypto market news, and anything else worth announcing without a full post behind it.

News has its own feed at /news/rss.xml, separate from the blog feed at /blog/rss.xml, so you can subscribe to either one on its own.