Hot core CPI lifts hike odds to 90%; bitcoin's post-CPI spike fades

August's core CPI ran hotter than forecast — up 0.3% month-over-month against a 0.2% consensus, with the annual rate at 2.4% — even as the headline print matched expectations at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. The report landed at 8:30am ET (12:30 UTC) on Friday, and CME FedWatch-tracked odds of a rate hike at next week's September 15–16 FOMC meeting jumped to about 90%, up from roughly 70% ahead of the release. US stocks rallied anyway as investors took relief in the in-line headline figure, even with yields and hike odds both moving higher.

Markets

The S&P 500 closed up 0.96%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.15%, the Nasdaq added 0.88% and the Russell 2000 rose 1.04%, snapping a four-day losing streak. Oracle jumped in early trading after a fiscal first-quarter earnings beat and raised profit guidance. Macy's fell 1.4% despite beating quarterly earnings estimates and raising its full-year outlook.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 closed up about 0.5% near 14,404, while the DAX and CAC 40 each added roughly 0.8% and the Stoxx 600 rose 0.3% — all tracking the post-CPI relief that lifted US futures.

Commodities

Brent crude eased 1.4% to $106.11/bbl, still elevated on the month on Iran-related supply tension, while WTI ticked up 0.1% to $102.59. Gold pulled back from Thursday's highs, opening near $4,359/oz — down 1.1% — before recovering to around $4,387 by mid-morning US trading.

Crypto

Bitcoin whipsawed hard around the CPI release: it dipped toward $76,000 in the initial reaction, then spiked as high as $79,890 in the following hour, before fading back to trade around $77,024 as of 18:58 UTC — up just 0.6% on the day from the $76,568.72 level at the 00:00 UTC open, a far smaller net move than the intraday swing suggested. Ether held its gain better, trading near $2,535.79, up 4.0% from its $2,438.23 open. Among other majors, SOL rose 2.4% to $101.05, BNB gained 1.9% to $722.33, XRP added 1.3% to $1.3523 and DOGE rose 1.3% to $0.08397.

Nothing new broke on the regulatory front inside this window; the Senate's cloture vote on the CLARITY Act's motion to proceed remains scheduled for September 15 — the same day the new FOMC meeting begins.

What it means for crypto trading

Bitcoin's sharp round-trip around the CPI print — spiking more than 4% intraday before giving almost all of it back — is a reminder of how sensitive crypto remains to Fed-rate repricing. With hike odds now near 90% heading into next week's FOMC, the decision itself, and any surprise in the statement or press conference, is the single most likely catalyst to move crypto meaningfully in either direction over the coming week.

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