Stocks climb as 10-year yield sets a new high near 5.3%

US stocks rose for a second straight session on Monday, October 5, even as long-end Treasury yields climbed to 52-week highs. The S&P 500 gained 0.66% to 7,773.95 against Friday's close, about 0.55% below its record. The 10-year yield rose roughly 3.8 basis points to about 5.315%. Friday's weak September payrolls report (+29k jobs) reduced the odds of another Fed rate hike, and AI-led tech strength outweighed the higher yields.

What to watch

No major US data releases or Fed events turned up on today's calendar.
Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade is expected to reach its first public testnet today.
The next FOMC meeting is October 27-28, with a decision on October 28. A further hike is still possible.
No index rebalance is imminent.

Markets

The Nasdaq closed at a record on tech strength, while the Dow lagged. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 closed 0.4% higher on Monday, the FTSE 100 gained 0.34% to 10,497 and the DAX rose 0.3%. Europe was recovering from three-month lows the previous week, as the weak US jobs data lowered rate-hike expectations. French stocks slid on fiscal fears even as banks lifted the wider index.

Commodities

Brent crude settled at $100.32 a barrel, down 1.89%, and WTI at $89.43, down 1.8%, according to one report. Sources conflicted on oil levels on the day. I could not confirm a reliable gold price.

Crypto

As of 05:55 UTC on October 6, bitcoin traded at $85,544, down 0.3% from the 00:00 UTC open of $85,767. It ranged between $85,323 and $86,130 in that time. Ether traded at $2,701, down 0.3%. Solana, XRP, dogecoin and BNB were each down between 0.5% and 0.8% over the same period. Overnight trading was quiet, with no hourly bar moving more than 0.3%.

What it means for crypto trading

Crypto is range-bound under a 10-year yield above 5.3%. A sustained move probably needs a repricing of Fed hike odds, so Treasury yields and rate expectations ahead of the October 28 decision are the key catalyst to watch.

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