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Bitcoin squeezes past $86k as September payrolls loom

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Market News

Bitcoin jumped in the 04:00 UTC hour on short covering and lower yields. The September jobs report, due at 08:30 ET, is the day's swing factor.

Bitcoin squeezes past $86k as September payrolls loom

Bitcoin pushed higher overnight as Treasury yields eased and short positions were squeezed. As of 05:55 UTC it traded at $86,000, up 1.3% from the 00:00 UTC open of $84,880. The move came mainly in the 04:00 UTC hour, which peaked at $86,913. Attention now turns to the September US jobs report, due at 08:30 ET (13:30 UK).

What to watch

  • US September jobs report, 08:30 ET: consensus is for roughly +93,000 payrolls (forecasts range from about 50,000 to 98,000) and unemployment holding at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are seen up 0.3% on the month.
  • Fed speakers: a heavy slate of appearances continues through the week.
  • Next FOMC: October 27-28. Futures are pricing a hike, so a hot payrolls print would strengthen that case.

Markets

On October 1, Wall Street finished little changed as yields retreated from multiyear highs. The S&P 500 gained 0.19% to 7,666.45, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.04% to 26,871.60 and the Dow added 0.04% to 50,926.56. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.22%.

European stocks closed lower on October 1 on energy costs and inflation worries. The Stoxx 600, DAX and CAC 40 each fell 0.6%, while the FTSE 100 fell 1.1%.

Commodities

Brent was reported at about $96.76, down 1.3% on the day. Another source put it near $103.86 intraday, so the level depends on timing. Gold was not covered in the sources reviewed.

Crypto

Against the 00:00 UTC open, as of 05:55 UTC:

  • Ether traded at $2,719, up 0.5%.
  • Solana traded at $121.95, up 3.0%.
  • XRP traded at $1.517, up 1.5%.

Reports tie the bitcoin spike to lower Treasury yields, fading expectations of another Fed hike and about $46 million of short liquidations across Binance, Bybit and OKX.

On regulation, the Senate rejected cloture on the CLARITY Act 49-50 on September 15, leaving it eleven votes short of the 60 required. Congress recesses on October 5. Unless there is a rapid re-vote, market structure legislation likely slips to 2027. Meanwhile the SEC and CFTC are pressing ahead with their own rulemaking.

What it means for crypto trading

Payrolls are the swing factor today. A hot print would revive hike odds and push yields back up, which would test the short-covering rally. A soft one would extend the yield relief that fed this move.

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