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Dow ends September down 4.9% as 10-year yield hits 5.29%

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Wall Street ended September with the Dow down 4.9% on the month as Treasury yields kept climbing despite a cooler PCE print. Bitcoin is up 0.9% since the 00:00 UTC open.

Dow ends September down 4.9% as 10-year yield hits 5.29%

Wall Street closed September on a sour note. The Dow fell 0.86% on September 30 to 50,906, leaving it down 4.9% for the month, as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.29% and wiped out the morning's gains from the cooler inflation data. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has edged higher overnight.

What to watch

  • ISM manufacturing PMI at 9:00 AM ET, forecast 54.8 against 54.6 previously.
  • Initial jobless claims at 7:30 AM ET, forecast 201K against 197K previously.
  • Fed speakers: Barkin, Collins, Schmid, Waller, Jefferson, Bowman, Cook, Williams and Logan are all scheduled.
  • Next FOMC: October 27-28, with the decision on October 28 at 2:00 PM ET.

Markets

In the US on September 30, the S&P 500 fell 0.25% to 7,651.54 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.24% to 26,861.06. The Dow and S&P 500 ended September down 4.9% and 0.7% respectively, while the Nasdaq gained 1.7% for the month.

European stocks closed lower on September 30. The DAX fell 0.79% to 25,199.20 and the CAC 40 fell 0.89% to 7,964.52. The FTSE 100 held up better, down 0.29% at 10,606.01. The Stoxx 600 was on course for a decline of nearly 2% in September, its first monthly fall in six months.

Commodities

At the September 30 close, one source put Brent at about $97.46 a barrel and WTI at about $90.60, though levels varied between sources. Gold futures were at about $4,219.

Crypto

As of 05:55 UTC on October 1, bitcoin traded at $84,344, up 0.9% from the 00:00 UTC open. The only large move in the past 24 hours came at 12:00 UTC on September 30, when it spiked above $85,500 before fading. Ether was at $2,718 (+1.2%), Solana at $119.42 (+1.1%), XRP at $1.51 (+1.2%) and dogecoin at $0.0958 (+1.3%), all against the same open.

On regulation, CFTC Chairman Selig has directed staff to begin exploring crypto market-structure rules under the agency's existing authorities. The SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, published in August, remains in the proposal stage.

What it means for crypto trading

Bitcoin is holding $83-84k while yields grind higher. A strong ISM print or hawkish Fed speakers could revive October hike odds, which is the main risk to the current bid.

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