Hot ISM prices gauge stalls rally; bitcoin gains 1.4% to $84.8k

Stocks edged higher on the first session of October as Treasury yields pulled back from their highest levels in more than 20 years, with the 10-year at about 5.24%. The ISM manufacturing index came in at 54.5, a touch under the 54.9 consensus, but its prices-paid component jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, well above the 72 economists expected. Futures traders still put the chance of an October Fed hike at about 34%.

Markets

The S&P 500 rose about 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite about 0.3%, while the Dow finished near flat. Sources differ on the exact closing levels, so none are quoted here. Micron's AI-driven outlook supported tech, and Nike was due to report.

In Europe, the session opened lower. The DAX was down about 0.6% and the CAC 40 about 0.1%, while the FTSE 100 was flat near 14,065. I found no Stoxx 600 close for the day.

Commodities

Gold was about $4,182 an ounce, up about 0.6% on the day. Brent quotes conflict, from about $96.8 to $103.9 a barrel depending on the source and time of day, so the level is unreliable.

Crypto

As of 19:00 UTC, bitcoin traded at $84,802, up 1.4% from the 00:00 UTC open. The day's range ran from $83,186 to $85,274. The biggest hourly move was the 17:00 UTC hour, up 0.84%. Ether was $2,700 (+0.5%), XRP $1.50 (+0.7%), Solana $118.3 (+0.2%), BNB $770 (+0.1%) and dogecoin $0.095 (+0.5%).

Citi raised its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 and its ether target to $3,028 from $2,240, citing a more supportive macro backdrop and returning ETF inflows.

On regulation, nothing new broke today. The SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets and the Clarity Act are both still pending.

What it means for crypto trading

Easing yields and the lower October hike odds are helping crypto, but the hot ISM prices-paid reading keeps inflation risk alive and could put yields back under pressure. Bitcoin needs to hold above $85k to confirm a breakout from the week's narrow range.

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