Bombatag

Markets pause after Monday's slide as jobs and PCE data loom

3 min read
Market News

No new shock overnight: attention turns to JOLTS, consumer confidence and Wednesday's PCE inflation print, with rate-hike odds for the Fed's October 28 meeting near 72%.

Markets pause after Monday's slide as jobs and PCE data loom

Markets opened Tuesday in a pause after Monday's slide, with no new shock overnight and the focus shifting to data. Wall Street closed lower on Monday, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending near 5.24%, a 19-year high, and Brent holding around $105. Bitcoin was little changed: as of 05:55 UTC on September 29 it traded at $83,414, down 0.1% from the 00:00 UTC open.

What to watch

  • Today: August JOLTS job openings and September consumer confidence.
  • Wednesday: August PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
  • Thursday: US manufacturing data.
  • Friday: the September jobs report.
  • Fed: the FOMC raised the target rate 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, the first hike since 2023. The next meeting is October 28, and CME FedWatch showed about a 72% chance of another 25bp hike as of September 28.

Markets

On Monday the Dow fell 0.7% to 51,481.51, the S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 7,683.69 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9% to 26,820.38, all against Friday's close. Stocks slid on higher oil and yields after the US rejected Iran's terms to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though talks are expected to resume. The 10-year bid yield touched 5.272% before settling near 5.24%.

In Europe, early-session reports showed the Stoxx 600 up 0.2%, the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 each up 0.3%, and the DAX broadly flat. The eurozone flash composite PMI rose to 53.1 in September from 52.0, comfortably above expectations.

Commodities

Brent traded around $104-105 on Monday and WTI held above $93. Gold fell to about $4,150 an ounce, its lowest since August 5, as higher oil fed inflation worries and expectations of higher-for-longer rates.

Crypto

As of 05:55 UTC on September 29, against the 00:00 UTC open:

  • Bitcoin: $83,414, down 0.1% (range $82,776-$83,620)
  • Ether: $2,676, down 0.5%
  • Solana: $118.18, down 0.6%
  • BNB: $759, down 0.6%
  • XRP: $1.49, down 0.3%
  • Dogecoin: $0.0939, down 0.1%

The tape was narrow and drifting, with no standout mover.

On regulation, the CLARITY Act failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 on September 15. The CFTC is now expected to push ahead with crypto market-structure rules under its existing authority.

What it means for crypto trading

Crypto is flat while yields, oil and rate-hike odds set the tone for risk assets. Wednesday's PCE print is the next real repricing risk, and a hot number would add pressure on bitcoin.

Sources: