Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz plan; oil back above $105, crypto slides

Oil jumped back above $105 a barrel on Monday after President Trump said over the weekend he had rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reversing Friday's easing and reviving the risk-off mood that had dominated the prior week. Brent crude traded at $105.76, up 1.4% on the day, as Iran said it was awaiting a "definitive" US response to its own seven-day roadmap and Trump said he expected negotiations to resume this week. The reversal landed just as US equity futures softened from Friday's rally and crypto majors slid broadly overnight.

What to watch

New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are each scheduled to speak twice this week, alongside Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the August PCE price index on Thursday, October 1 (nowcasts point to roughly 3.4% core y/y), and the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September jobs report on Friday, October 2. The next FOMC rate decision is scheduled for October 27-28, with market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point hike running roughly 67-70% as of the weekend.

Markets

US stocks closed Friday, September 25 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 478.64 points (0.93%) to 51,828.62, snapping a three-week losing streak; the S&P 500 rose 0.51% to 7,743.41 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.5% to 27,068.72. On the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.1%, while the Dow shed 103 points. Microsoft rose 3.7% Friday after announcing plans to merge its consumer and workplace Copilot AI assistants into one corporate product; Alphabet added 0.6%. Meta fell 3.3% on the day but finished the week up 12% following a series of hardware releases tied to its Muse AI agent. Chip-equipment names outperformed, with Applied Materials up 2.3% and Lam Research up 2.6%. US futures pointed lower heading into Monday's open as the two-year Treasury yield climbed 5 basis points to 4.90% on the Hormuz-rejection news.

European bourses closed Friday little changed heading into the weekend, ahead of Monday's open into the oil jump: the FTSE 100 finished at 14,149, the DAX added 0.75% to close near 28,964, the CAC 40 fell 0.12% to 8,072, and the Stoxx Europe 600 ended the week up 0.5% in local-currency terms.

Commodities

Brent crude climbed above $106 intraday Monday before settling at $105.76, up 1.4% on the day, recovering losses from the prior session after Trump's rejection of Iran's Hormuz proposal raised the prospect of further delay to restoring oil flows through the strait. Gold held near $4,284 an ounce as of Sunday, September 27 — down about 6.7% over the past month, though still up 13.7% year-over-year and well off January's record high near $5,597.

Crypto

As of 05:55 UTC on September 28, measured against the 00:00 UTC open, bitcoin traded at $83,118.02, down 1.6% from its $84,472 open (day range $82,705–$84,999), and ether traded at $2,649.05, down 1.5% from $2,688.65. BNB was at $764.84, down 1.8%; XRP at $1.4822, down 2.3%; SOL at $119.00, down 2.5%. Dogecoin was the session's worst major loser, at $0.0932, down 3.8% from $0.0969. The broad overnight decline — with alts underperforming bitcoin and ether — came amid lingering fallout from Bitget's $387.5 million hack, the largest crypto exchange theft of 2026 (the tally was finalized September 27). Bitget's CEO has attributed the breach to a suspected North Korean group that exploited the exchange's backend wallet-authorization system rather than stealing private keys directly; the exchange says its $464 million User Protection Fund will cover the full loss.

What it means for crypto trading

A firmer oil bid and hike odds stuck near 70% are keeping risk appetite fragile heading into Thursday's PCE print and Friday's payrolls report. Either a hot or a soft surprise there could move both the Treasury-yield trajectory and this overnight crypto weakness quickly, and the still-unresolved Hormuz standoff remains the geopolitical tail risk sitting underneath both markets.

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