Futures firm as markets look past the Fed to the Trump-Xi summit

US equity futures rose Monday morning — S&P 500 futures up 0.42%, Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.58%, Dow futures up 0.36% — as investors looked past last week's Fed-hike hangover toward Thursday's Trump-Xi summit in Washington. The two leaders hold their main bilateral meeting and a state dinner focused on trade, AI, critical minerals and Taiwan, after US and Chinese officials, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng, opened preparatory trade talks in New York on Sunday. The bounce follows a rough week for US stocks: the Dow fell 1.7%, its worst week since March, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq managed a 0.7% gain. A weekend Houthi missile-and-drone attack on Saudi Arabia kept Middle East oil-supply risk in view heading into the new week.

What to watch

The STOXX Europe 600's quarterly review takes effect at today's European open, reclassifying Greek equities from Emerging to Developed Market status and making them newly eligible for the index.
This week's US data: Monday's Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Tuesday's Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, Wednesday's flash S&P Global US/Eurozone PMIs, Thursday's initial jobless claims and new-home sales (alongside the Trump-Xi summit), and Friday's durable goods orders and final University of Michigan sentiment. PCE data falls just outside the week, on September 26.
The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28. After the September 16 hike to 3.75%–4.00% — the Fed's first since 2023 — and Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone, 12 of 18 FOMC members' projections point to one more 25bp hike this year, to an average of 4.125%.

Markets

European stocks fell into the weekend on Friday: Germany's DAX dropped 1.6% to 25,304.06, France's CAC 40 lost 1.49% to 8,065.02, and the UK's FTSE 100 held up better, easing to 14,258. The continent reopens today with the STOXX 600 rebalance described above.

Commodities

Brent crude traded around $101.60 a barrel, still elevated versus a month ago after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities and export infrastructure wounded dozens of people and disrupted operations over the past two weeks; Saudi Arabia has been rerouting crude via ship-to-ship transfers from Ras Tanura to manage the disruption. Gold traded near $4,368–$4,377 an ounce, close to a one-week high after posting its first weekly gain in four weeks, as falling oil eased some inflation-premium demand even as the metal stayed a hedge against Middle East risk. Gold's 2026 high remains the $5,589–$5,597 level set in late January.

Crypto

As of 05:55 UTC, bitcoin traded at $81,541.61, up 0.45% from the 00:00 UTC open of $81,178.00, in a tight $80,850–$82,100 range. The move built over the prior 24 hours as a steady grind rather than a single sharp catalyst — the largest single-hour move was a 0.53% gain between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC, promptly followed by a 0.75% pullback. Ether traded near $2,665.22, up 0.76% from the prior close of $2,645.21, ranging $2,643.71–$2,707.70. Solana added 0.55% to $111.78 and BNB was essentially flat at $772.78. XRP was the standout major, up 1.39% to $1.4301, while dogecoin gained 1.25% to $0.08839.

There was no new, concrete crypto-regulatory development inside this window; the CFTC's August plan to build crypto market-structure rules under its existing authority and the SEC/CFTC's March joint interpretation on digital-asset securities law remain the standing backdrop rather than fresh news.

What it means for crypto trading

Crypto is trading quietly and range-bound near $81,500 with no dominant catalyst in this window. The bigger near-term swing factors for risk assets — and by extension crypto — are Thursday's Trump-Xi summit outcome and the trajectory of Middle East oil-supply risk, not anything crypto-specific. The next real repricing catalyst is likely the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, where market pricing still leans toward one more 25bp hike this year.

Sources: