Futures and bitcoin firm up after the Fed's hawkish hangover

Risk assets found their footing overnight after Wednesday's Fed-driven selloff. As of 05:55 UTC, bitcoin traded at $76,390, up 0.2% from the 00:00 UTC open of $76,206, having ranged between $76,055 and $76,774 through the session. US index futures pointed to a similarly modest recovery, with Dow futures up 0.2% and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3% and 0.5% respectively, clawing back a small part of Wednesday's losses.

What to watch

Initial jobless claims, new residential construction (housing starts) and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey are all due at 8:30am ET. The next FOMC decision falls on October 28, with prediction markets currently pricing roughly 62% odds of no change against 38% for another quarter-point hike. Thursday is also the last trading day before Friday's quarterly index rebalances take effect: FTSE Russell's September review applies after Friday's close and turns effective at Monday's open, adding Easyjet and Ithaca Energy to the FTSE 100 while dropping Entain and Persimmon, alongside the parallel S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 quarterly rebalances.

Markets

Wednesday's session closed lower across the board after the Federal Reserve's quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4.00% and a hawkish press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh. The Dow fell 631.21 points (-1.21%) to 51,461.90, the S&P 500 slipped 0.45% to 7,551.81, and the Nasdaq Composite was roughly flat at 25,978.42 (-0.01%), with Goldman Sachs among the session's laggards.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 closed Wednesday up 0.2%, trailing gains in the DAX (+0.65%) and CAC 40 (+0.51%); the pan-European Stoxx 600 added 0.5%, recovering off Tuesday's three-month low. European indices had rallied into the Fed decision before the post-meeting hawkish tone hit US markets later in the session.

Commodities

WTI crude eased to $102.13 a barrel, down 0.29% on the day. Gold climbed back above $4,300 an ounce, ending a two-session decline.

Crypto

Beyond bitcoin's modest overnight gain, ether traded at $2,438, up 0.82% from $2,418.26, and solana was the standout mover at $99.59, up 0.94% from $98.66. XRP slipped to $1.2954, down 0.32%, while BNB ($725.45) and dogecoin ($0.08081) were essentially flat, down 0.06% and 0.12% respectively. It was a muted, stabilizing session overall — a mild bounce rather than a fresh directional move.

What it means for crypto trading

The overnight bounce reads as relief after Wednesday's Fed-driven whipsaw rather than a new catalyst. Thursday's jobless-claims, housing-starts and Philly Fed data, along with Friday's index-rebalancing flows, are near-term noise; the October 28 FOMC meeting remains the more significant pivot point for crypto direction, with markets currently split on whether the Fed delivers a second hike this cycle.

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